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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Block Roar Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Ifrit · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Ifrit · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Crawler · 3 games
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Ifrit · 3 games
67%

Block Roar Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
d1smar · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
724 picks · 606 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 488 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1059 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
425 picks · 712 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1008 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
384 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 203 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:32
Penguins Squad 37%Block Roar Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 19:31.
Game 2prediction correct42:39
Penguins Squad 37%Block Roar Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 49:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 63%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2