?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Crawler · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 3 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Ifrit · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Snow- · 2 games
0%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
80%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
63%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
86%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
626 picks · 409 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
548 picks · 530 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
539 picks · 432 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
435 picks · 518 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 382 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
363 picks · 200 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
321 picks · 483 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 212 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:45
Penguins Squad 39%Team DogChamp 61%
The model gave 61% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSnow-
48% · 43 games49% · 77 games
Shadow FiendYuma
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSatoshi-
42% · 75 games50% · 154 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCrawler
52% · 268 games50% · 44 games
MagnusITALIANO GANGSTA
Magnus
Undying
UndyingIfrit
53% · 240 games50% · 199 games
RubickGiant
Rubick
53% · 152 games
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct4:24
Penguins Squad 39%Team DogChamp 61%
The model gave 61% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 22:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSnow-
50% · 41 game51% · 218 games
LinaYuma
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSatoshi-
49% · 41 game50% · 72 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorIfrit
52% · 125 games47% · 76 games
TidehunterITALIANO GANGSTA
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickCrawler
49% · 250 games53% · 10 games
OracleBloody Nine
Oracle
50% · 81 game
RikiGiant
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 71%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2