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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perrito Panzonwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Perrito Panzon

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Elmisho · 3 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
K1 · 3 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Elmisho · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
ILICH- · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
K1 · 2 games
100%

Estar Backs

Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 4 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Prada · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Wits · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Frank · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
291 picks · 710 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
259 picks · 241 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 662 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
247 picks · 260 bans
55%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 637 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:33
Perrito Panzon 64%Estar Backs 36%
The model gave 64% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
62% · 38 games55% · 132 games
AlchemistbsK7-
Alchemist
Puck
PuckPiPi
49% · 150 games50% · 175 games
MarciMichael
Marci
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
48% · 172 games46% · 229 games
Shadow DemonAccel
Shadow Demon
Mars
MarsFrank
42% · 93 games
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
50% · 83 games
Game 2prediction correct25:25
Perrito Panzon 64%Estar Backs 36%
The model gave 64% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaK1
60% · 59 games52% · 273 games
BeastmasterbsK7-
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
55% · 120 games39% · 151 game
SnapfireMichael
Snapfire
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
45% · 69 games43% · 102 games
DisruptorAccel
Disruptor
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
62% · 166 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonElmisho
55% · 112 games
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 74%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2