DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negroloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Drow Rangeroften banned
Wits · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Wits · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Hokori
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Muerta
Genek · 7 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Ogre Magisignature
Gardick · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
388 picks · 499 bans
Muerta
381 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 392 bans
Lion
321 picks · 157 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 732 bans
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 414 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Perro Negro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:35
Perro Negro 46%Hokori 54%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 47:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterWits
RazorLumière
Centaur Warrunnerkendallx
DawnbreakerSacred
ClockwerkMjz
PangolierDarkMago
49% · 240 games
PhoenixGardick
45% · 161 game
SnapfireGenek
Game 2prediction correct39:26
Perro Negro 44%Hokori 56%
The model gave 56% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 58:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterWits
UrsaLumière
Lycankendallx
BristlebackSacred
EnchantressMjz
Earth SpiritDarkMago
51% · 175 games
PhoenixGardick
55% · 200 games
ClockwerkGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 62%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2