ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negrowin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MMiranaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Lich
Mjz · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Troll Warlord
Wits · 2 games
Mirana
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
465 picks · 377 bans
Clockwerk
420 picks · 539 bans
Batrider
381 picks · 484 bans
Lion
372 picks · 199 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 598 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 406 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 857 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Mirana
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Perro Negro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:37
Perro Negro 70%Mirana 30%
The model gave 70% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Mirana in 57:03.
Game 2prediction correct26:33
Perro Negro 70%Mirana 30%
The model gave 70% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 41:01.
Game 3prediction correct38:20
Perro Negro 70%Mirana 30%
The model gave 70% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 47:17.
Model check result
Model favoritePerro Negro · 70%
Series resultPerro Negro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3