DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 11 games
Disruptoroften banned
Matthew · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Michael · 8 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
640 picks · 317 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 562 bans
Puck
407 picks · 1144 bans
Hoodwink
401 picks · 211 bans
Mars
375 picks · 624 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 275 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 397 bans
Warlock
356 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:43
Peru Rejects 62%4Pirates 38%
The model gave 62% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarParker
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
DoomILICH-
Troll Warlordzvёzd
SlardarDarkMago
Marsмистер мораль
SnapfireMatthew
Pugnaariel
ClockwerkMichael
BanePERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed26:37
Peru Rejects 62%4Pirates 38%
The model gave 62% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
Terrorbladezvёzd
TinyDarkMago
Timbersawмистер мораль
SlardarILICH-
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
TuskMatthew
EnchantressPERDAN4IK
ClockwerkMichael
Lionariel
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 70%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2