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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
chandogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 9 games
44%

chandogs

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Argius · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
536 picks · 791 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 349 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 638 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 561 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 711 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 565 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 464 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
323 picks · 903 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Peru Rejects 59%chandogs 41%
The model gave 59% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 28:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorParker
40% · 25 games50% · 294 games
GyrocopterArgius
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
57% · 130 games53% · 169 games
Shadow Fiendmini-`
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsFrank
45% · 87 games
Warlock
WarlockElmisho
46% · 144 games
Marci
MarciScofield
52% · 77 games
Game 2prediction correct43:48
Peru Rejects 57%chandogs 43%
The model gave 57% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 54:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaParker
48% · 43 games48% · 103 games
JuggernautArgius
Juggernaut
Viper
ViperDarkMago
60% · 17 games47% · 154 games
Invokermini-`
Invoker
Bristleback
BristlebackFrank
54% · 47 games
Tiny
TinyScofield
52% · 69 games
Jakiro
JakiroElmisho
52% · 81 game
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 63%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2