PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Flameloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 2 games
Luna
payk · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Flame
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Bristleback
Adrx · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Argius · 1 game
Leshrac
S1RENM · 1 game
Luna
Argius · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
424 picks · 394 bans
Snapfire
396 picks · 202 bans
Puck
344 picks · 895 bans
Pugna
318 picks · 361 bans
Warlock
286 picks · 138 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 227 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 832 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 673 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
Peru Rejects 59%Flame 41%
The model gave 59% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 24:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaParker
Templar AssassinArgius
Queen of PainDarkMago
Shadow FiendS1RENM
Pangolierpayk
Centaur WarrunnerAdrx
JakiroElmisho
SnapfireMichael
Game 2prediction missed38:51
Peru Rejects 60%Flame 40%
The model gave 60% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Flame in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoParker
TinkerAdrx
EarthshakerDarkMago
Nature's ProphetArgius
JakiroElmisho
Storm SpiritS1RENM
Bristlebackpayk
HoodwinkMichael
Game 3prediction correct43:7
Peru Rejects 57%Flame 43%
The model gave 57% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
LunaArgius
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Storm SpiritS1RENM
Monkey Kingpayk
HuskarAdrx
DisruptorElmisho
SnapfireMichael
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 71%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3