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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 3:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 3:1
TaiLung Mafialoss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristleback
payk · 4 games
25%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Elmisho · 3 games
67%

TaiLung Mafia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
464 picks · 236 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
458 picks · 440 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 947 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 225 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 670 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
287 picks · 648 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:48
Peru Rejects 53%TaiLung Mafia 47%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 50:17.
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Peru Rejects 53%TaiLung Mafia 47%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 34:28.
Game 3prediction correct39:36
Peru Rejects 53%TaiLung Mafia 47%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 59:45.
Game 4prediction correct26:24
Peru Rejects 53%TaiLung Mafia 47%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 37:22.
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 53%
Series resultPeru Rejects 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4