DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam Sangreloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
Clockwerk
Michael · 8 games
Team Sangre
Muerta
Michael · 2 games
Axe
Sacred · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Pakazs · 1 game
Phoenix
Sacred · 1 game
Pudge
Pakazs · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
Michael · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Sacred · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
565 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 349 bans
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 663 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 547 bans
Snapfire
418 picks · 144 bans
Hoodwink
405 picks · 191 bans
Mars
379 picks · 522 bans
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:30
Peru Rejects 56%Team Sangre 44%
The model gave 56% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 51:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
ClinkzPakazs
BroodmotherFrank
MuertaMichael
Ember SpiritDarkMago
TuskYadomi
BatriderElmisho
ClockwerkScofield
Game 2prediction correct24:12
Peru Rejects 57%Team Sangre 43%
The model gave 57% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaParker
LunaPakazs
UnderlordFrank
WarlockYadomi
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Shadow DemonMichael
Shadow ShamanScofield
JakiroElmisho
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 63%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2