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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PGL WINNERSloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quantum Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PGL WINNERS

No games played over 6 months.

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 581 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 804 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 498 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% PGL WINNERS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
PGL WINNERS 40%Quantum Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Game 2prediction missed
PGL WINNERS 40%Quantum Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by PGL WINNERS.
Game 3prediction correct
PGL WINNERS 40%Quantum Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 60%
Series resultQuantum Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3