?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 3 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 2 games
0%

Dragon

Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
316 picks · 642 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
300 picks · 366 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 440 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
210 picks · 107 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 620 bans
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 403 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
197 picks · 234 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Phoenix Gaming 51%Dragon 49%
The model gave 51% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 22:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordshiro
41% · 13 games51% · 76 games
Nyx Assassin斗圣
Nyx Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXwy
46% · 20 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
little data
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
52% · 27 games
Oracle
Oraclezzq
55% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Phoenix Gaming 52%Dragon 48%
The model gave 52% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
36% · 7 games50% · 32 games
Oracle斗圣
Oracle
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXwy
little data
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMolasses
57% · 3 games
Pangolier
PangolierpLAnet
45% · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
58% · 15 games
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 56%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2