Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 7 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lwwnb · 5 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 5 games
Hoodwink
Helios · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Helios · 5 games
iG Vitality
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 10 games
Banesignature
QYQX · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dogf1ghts · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
426 picks · 272 bans
Mars
412 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 428 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 449 bans
Sand King
306 picks · 409 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 396 bans
Weaver
261 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% iG Vitality
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Phoenix Gaming 57%iG Vitality 43%
The model gave 57% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomzone-
Anti-Mageukiyo
MarsShining
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
LionHelios
Death Prophetcsj
Shadow DemonLwwnb
Earth SpiritDogf1ghts
52% · 274 games
GrimstrokeQYQX
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 58%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1