Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Marsoften banned
Shining · 4 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
M77 · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
M77 · 1 game
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 1 game
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
395 picks · 285 bans
Mars
381 picks · 545 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 716 bans
Queen of Pain
286 picks · 349 bans
Kunkka
235 picks · 401 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 154 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:40
Phoenix Gaming 21%Royal Never Give Up 79%
The model gave 79% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 50:17.
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Phoenix Gaming 21%Royal Never Give Up 79%
The model gave 79% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 26:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 79%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2