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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lion
pLAnet · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Xwy · 7 games
86%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
zzq · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
29%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 6 games
33%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
XCJ · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
29%
Mirana
Mirana
September · 6 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
467 picks · 191 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 581 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 868 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 307 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 245 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 443 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 18%
Hero pool strength54% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Phoenix Gaming 66%Sparking Arrow Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
60% · 62 games47% · 41 game
SpectreMS
Spectre
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXwy
47% · 72 games54% · 55 games
Sand KingSon GoKu
Sand King
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
54% · 65 games46% · 78 games
Lina7e
Lina
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
40% · 118 games55% · 85 games
PangolierSeptember
Pangolier
51% · 58 games
ViperXCJ
Viper
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Phoenix Gaming 64%Sparking Arrow Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
40% · 61 game44% · 14 games
SvenMS
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracXwy
50% · 73 games51% · 60 games
Dark SeerSon GoKu
Dark Seer
Lion
LionpLAnet
55% · 159 games55% · 77 games
Invoker7e
Invoker
Abaddon
Abaddonzzq
51% · 73 games48% · 75 games
AxeSeptember
Axe
50% · 140 games
PhoenixXCJ
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed22:39
Phoenix Gaming 62%Sparking Arrow Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingshiro
46% · 107 games57% · 66 games
LunaMS
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracXwy
48% · 82 games54% · 81 game
DoomSon GoKu
Doom
Lion
LionpLAnet
44% · 150 games55% · 98 games
Invoker7e
Invoker
Elder Titan
Elder Titanzzq
51% · 67 games51% · 111 games
PangolierSeptember
Pangolier
47% · 50 games
HoodwinkXCJ
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 75%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3