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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pibbles Corploss 1:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PlayTimewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pibbles Corp

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mjz · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ryu · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Prada · 2 games
50%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ryu · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Mjz · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey King
Alone · 2 games
0%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolier
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
46%
Largo
Largooften banned
Frank · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 342 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
460 picks · 251 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
408 picks · 184 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
362 picks · 334 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 521 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 139 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 527 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:31
Pibbles Corp 29%PlayTime 71%
The model gave 71% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Pibbles Corp in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMnz
54% · 126 games50% · 27 games
Anti-Magebottega
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
TimbersawAlone
56% · 202 games46% · 401 game
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Largo
LargoRyu
57% · 187 games45% · 151 game
DawnbreakerFCR
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickMjz
48% · 330 games50% · 369 games
WindrangerElmisho
Windranger
Tusk
TuskPrada
51% · 288 games47% · 185 games
Winter WyvernKJ
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Pibbles Corp 31%PlayTime 69%
The model gave 69% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAlone
52% · 170 games46% · 190 games
Nature's Prophetbottega
Nature's Prophet
Windranger
WindrangerMnz
52% · 310 games49% · 107 games
BrewmasterFCR
Brewmaster
Doom
DoomRyu
51% · 206 games49% · 189 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Mirana
MiranaMjz
50% · 268 games47% · 325 games
Dark WillowElmisho
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzlePrada
50% · 114 games53% · 257 games
Winter WyvernKJ
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct22:43
Pibbles Corp 29%PlayTime 71%
The model gave 71% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperAlone
56% · 126 games59% · 75 games
Iobottega
Io
Huskar
HuskarMnz
49% · 52 games53% · 240 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierRyu
46% · 214 games47% · 327 games
Dragon KnightFCR
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPrada
51% · 509 games44% · 395 games
Dark WillowElmisho
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerMjz
46% · 250 games51% · 114 games
Witch DoctorKJ
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 86%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3