Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Piggy Killerwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Holy Grailloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Piggy Killer
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Disruptor
Victoria · 3 games
Enchantress
Victoria · 3 games
Mirana
Frisk · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 3 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 3 games
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
649 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
595 picks · 945 bans
Disruptor
540 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 428 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 367 bans
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1205 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)85% vs 56%
Hero pool strength69% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:5
Piggy Killer 69%Holy Grail 31%
The model gave 69% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunaflyfly
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
Outworld DestroyerXm
TimbersawTzy
Dragon KnightSrf
Abaddonomoxiloyi
MiranaFrisk
BaneVictoria
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Piggy Killer 71%Holy Grail 29%
The model gave 71% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeflyfly
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
DoomSrf
Sand KingTzy
VenomancerXm
Earth Spiritomoxiloyi
Dark WillowFrisk
EnchantressVictoria
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 82%
Series resultPiggy Killer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2