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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Piggy Killerwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Piggy Killer

Tiny
Tiny
Frisk · 4 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 3 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Frisk · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Frisk · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Victoria · 1 game
100%

iG Vitality

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 10 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sj · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 7 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Drink · 6 games
83%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 6 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sj · 4 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
988 picks · 672 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
662 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
595 picks · 948 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 437 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 354 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 516 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1131 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
490 picks · 362 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Piggy Killer 69%iG Vitality 31%
The model gave 69% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
46% · 301 game52% · 296 games
Monkey Kingukiyo
Monkey King
Viper
ViperSrf
48% · 106 games55% · 275 games
Dragon KnightAsh
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
45% · 181 game53% · 277 games
Primal Beastdolem
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVictoria
45% · 173 games51% · 194 games
PhoenixDrink
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyFrisk
46% · 552 games58% · 271 game
DisruptorSj
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Piggy Killer 69%iG Vitality 31%
The model gave 69% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinflyfly
41% · 54 games53% · 413 games
Nature's Prophetdolem
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSrf
57% · 275 games42% · 72 games
Anti-Mageukiyo
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
47% · 355 games55% · 467 games
PangolierAsh
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickFrisk
50% · 517 games55% · 347 games
DisruptorDrink
Disruptor
Enchantress
EnchantressVictoria
52% · 219 games43% · 121 game
JakiroSj
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 82%
Series resultPiggy Killer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2