Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Piggy Killerwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Supernovaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Piggy Killer
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
Tiny
Frisk · 2 games
Clockwerk
Victoria · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Srf · 1 game
Jakiro
Victoria · 1 game
Mirana
Frisk · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
Rubick
sheep · 3 games
Tusk
sheep · 3 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 2 games
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
923 picks · 628 bans
Tiny
647 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
552 picks · 879 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 544 bans
Snapfire
494 picks · 334 bans
Death Prophet
474 picks · 1040 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:18
Piggy Killer 58%Supernova 42%
The model gave 58% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerflyfly
Tusksheep
Storm SpiritXm
Death ProphetSrf
TinyFrisk
DisruptorVictoria
Game 2prediction correct28:23
Piggy Killer 60%Supernova 40%
The model gave 60% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 47:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritXm
Tinysheep
Lone Druidflyfly
TidehunterSrf
MiranaFrisk
EnchantressVictoria
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 70%
Series resultPiggy Killer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2