The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPpiggzloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
piggz
No games played over 6 months.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 719 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 761 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% piggz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
piggz 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Game 2prediction missed
piggz 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by piggz.
Game 3prediction correct
piggz 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 66%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3