CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aalohasquadloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 41 game
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 41 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
alohasquad
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Ringmaster
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Fishman · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
Tusk
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
618 picks · 955 bans
Tusk
518 picks · 423 bans
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 630 bans
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 967 bans
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 532 bans
Warlock
414 picks · 253 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 463 bans
Mars
394 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:24
Pipsqueak+4 59%alohasquad 41%
The model gave 59% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 51:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerDarkLord^
LunaShigetsu
Monkey KingCopy
RazorCloud
BrewmasterPalantimos
Ember Spiritспортик
MuertaEkki
DisruptorFishman
Treant Protectoraik
TuskALOHADANCE
Game 2prediction missed21:29
Pipsqueak+4 58%alohasquad 42%
The model gave 58% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by alohasquad in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
OmniknightDarkLord^
Puckспортик
Storm SpiritCopy
ClinkzShigetsu
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
UnderlordCloud
Ringmasteraik
UndyingFishman
Treant ProtectorEkki
Shadow ShamanALOHADANCE
Game 3prediction correct33:15
Pipsqueak+4 57%alohasquad 43%
The model gave 57% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerDarkLord^
AbaddonShigetsu
BeastmasterCopy
Leshracспортик
UnderlordPalantimos
LargoCloud
Jakiroaik
WarlockFishman
TuskEkki
Shadow ShamanALOHADANCE
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 63%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3