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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 38 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 37 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
57%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
551 picks · 905 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 401 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 609 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 866 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 603 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 501 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
357 picks · 213 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:26
Pipsqueak+4 27%Aurora Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDarkLord^
51% · 237 games48% · 41 game
LunaNightfall
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
50% · 176 games50% · 239 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorPalantimos
53% · 38 games46% · 213 games
AxeWs
Axe
Undying
Undyingaik
50% · 123 games50% · 175 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
53% · 210 games49% · 116 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct16:20
Pipsqueak+4 26%Aurora Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDarkLord^
49% · 271 game51% · 90 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingCopy
48% · 171 game48% · 242 games
BeastmasterLorenof
Beastmaster
Razor
RazorPalantimos
49% · 40 games57% · 9 games
LargoWs
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
53% · 206 games48% · 248 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Dazzle
Dazzleaik
47% · 113 games56% · 212 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 12%Aurora Gaming 88%
The model gave 88% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 88%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3