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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 43 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 34 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 34 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 32 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 31 game
58%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 26 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 15 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 977 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 438 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 630 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1019 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 263 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 513 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 566 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:11
Pipsqueak+4 45%AVULUS 55%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
47% · 268 games51% · 630 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
44% · 330 games54% · 375 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Mars
MarsPalantimos
52% · 284 games56% · 101 game
LargoCorrupted
Largo
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
45% · 354 games51% · 209 games
Undyingasdekor_r
Undying
Tusk
TuskEkki
46% · 467 games53% · 388 games
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Pipsqueak+4 45%AVULUS 55%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDarkLord^
53% · 282 games47% · 297 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Huskar
HuskarCopy
59% · 84 games47% · 428 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsPalantimos
48% · 330 games50% · 82 games
LargoCorrupted
Largo
Dazzle
Dazzleaik
54% · 135 games50% · 179 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskEkki
48% · 474 games48% · 319 games
HoodwinkWein
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 61%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2