FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balaclavasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Tusk
Kaori · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Warlock
Kaori · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Disruptor
Kaori · 1 game
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkka
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 193 bans
Puck
295 picks · 656 bans
Dark Willow
261 picks · 112 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 608 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
242 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength64% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Pipsqueak+4 85%Balaclavas 15%
The model gave 85% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 27:31.
Game 2prediction correct42:18
Pipsqueak+4 85%Balaclavas 15%
The model gave 85% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 26:56.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 85%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2