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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 17 games
76%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 17 games
53%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 11 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 11 games
36%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Prada · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lumière · 5 games
80%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
560 picks · 283 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
502 picks · 507 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 1033 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 386 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 162 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 552 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
328 picks · 151 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
314 picks · 506 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:5
Pipsqueak+4 55%HunterZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 19:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
54% · 204 games52% · 199 games
MarciLumière
Marci
Undying
UndyingPalantimos
47% · 184 games48% · 277 games
DawnbreakerVitaly
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
53% · 301 game49% · 426 games
TuskMjz
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
54% · 234 games49% · 235 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
46% · 214 games
Game 2prediction missed26:34
Pipsqueak+4 59%HunterZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by HunterZ in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusNande
55% · 206 games48% · 197 games
GyrocopterLumière
Gyrocopter
Puck
Puckxn丶e
47% · 277 games50% · 167 games
AbaddonVitaly
Abaddon
Viper
ViperPalantimos
52% · 23 games50% · 239 games
Shadow ShamanMjz
Shadow Shaman
Huskar
HuskarEkki
52% · 49 games48% · 264 games
JakiroPrada
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
50% · 312 games
Game 3prediction correct42:7
Pipsqueak+4 56%HunterZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNande
51% · 200 games57% · 322 games
BristlebackLumière
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
42% · 155 games47% · 130 games
LycanVitaly
Lycan
Night Stalker
Night StalkerPalantimos
45% · 114 games56% · 217 games
SnapfireMjz
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
52% · 277 games46% · 351 game
JakiroPrada
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskEkki
54% · 274 games
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 61%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3