European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 3 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 2 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 18 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spirit
WoE · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 14 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 682 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 634 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
246 picks · 210 bans
Marci
245 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:42
Pipsqueak+4 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNande
SvenWoE
BrewmasterPalantimos
Monkey KingEthereal
Earthshakerxn丶e
SlardarAnkou
Shadow DemonKaori
WarlockHtrd
SilencerKidaro
Snapfireraregods
Game 2prediction missed31:25
Pipsqueak+4 60%Kalmychata 40%
The model gave 60% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritxn丶e
LycanAnkou
UrsaNande
LifestealerWoE
MarsPalantimos
PangolierEthereal
SnapfireKaori
Bounty Hunterraregods
WarlockKidaro
DisruptorHtrd
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 67%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2