FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 44 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 29 games
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 37 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 35 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 29 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
552 picks · 835 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 579 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 761 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 585 bans
Mars
344 picks · 480 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total62% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Pipsqueak+4 38%HULIGANI 62%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Game 2prediction missed29:10
Pipsqueak+4 44%HULIGANI 56%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 21:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Ember SpiritCopy
Dragon Knighterase
TidehunterPalantimos
AxeBb3px
HoodwinkEkki
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Undyingaik
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 62%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2