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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 31 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
55%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 38 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 35 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 32 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 30 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 29 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
551 picks · 848 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 373 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 585 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 774 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 588 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 554 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 486 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:8
Pipsqueak+4 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautDarkLord^
57% · 130 games43% · 187 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
55% · 148 games45% · 269 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
59% · 226 games49% · 275 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
49% · 299 games43% · 299 games
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
51% · 327 games51% · 100 games
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed23:10
Pipsqueak+4 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 24:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverDarkLord^
41% · 81 game50% · 227 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
48% · 339 games59% · 30 games
Faceless Voidv1olent-
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterPalantimos
47% · 214 games48% · 299 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
52% · 194 games54% · 176 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoraik
61% · 33 games50% · 129 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2