CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 46 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 44 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 43 games
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 38 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 34 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 33 games
Tusk
Ekki · 33 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 32 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 34 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 34 games
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
585 picks · 816 bans
Tiny
525 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
427 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
423 picks · 292 bans
Shadow Demon
385 picks · 1014 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 654 bans
Mars
366 picks · 579 bans
Centaur Warrunner
348 picks · 515 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total65% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:38
Pipsqueak+4 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:03:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaLowskill
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Queen of Painряф^^
InvokerMirage
BristlebackMalik
TidehunterCorrupted
HoodwinkEkki
PhoenixRESPECT
Warlockaik
Tinysayuw
Game 2prediction missed16:35
Pipsqueak+4 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezLowskill
Lifestealerssnovv1
Queen of Painряф^^
Storm SpiritMirage
LargoMalik
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
TinyEkki
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Shamanaik
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 65%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2