PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMilchloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 13 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 10 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 7 games
Milch
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
381 picks · 347 bans
Puck
342 picks · 861 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 169 bans
Pugna
294 picks · 339 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 792 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
Batrider
274 picks · 689 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 88%Milch 12%
The model gave 88% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Game 2prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 88%Milch 12%
The model gave 88% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 88%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2