PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 46 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 41 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
Tusk
Ekki · 33 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 29 games
Nemiga Gaming
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 9 games
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 817 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 564 bans
Tusk
441 picks · 396 bans
Warlock
434 picks · 298 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1038 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 673 bans
Mars
372 picks · 597 bans
Shadow Fiend
353 picks · 936 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Pipsqueak+4 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzLowskill
Lifestealerselfhate
Sand Kingряф^^
Beastmasteryoung G
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
UnderlordCovisnine
WarlockEkki
Shadow Demonariel
Hoodwinkaik
JakiroVaniLLl
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Pipsqueak+4 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLowskill
Shadow Fiendselfhate
Queen of Painряф^^
Invokeryoung G
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
AxeCovisnine
JakiroEkki
Hoodwinkariel
Treant Protectoraik
PhoenixVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 70%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2