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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoLogoJustMMRloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 38 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 37 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
57%

NoLogoJustMMR

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Flash · 4 games
25%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Flash · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
G.T.I · 4 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
piro · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
552 picks · 903 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 399 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 609 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 863 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 603 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 502 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
356 picks · 213 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Pipsqueak+4 74%NoLogoJustMMR 26%
The model gave 74% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
53% · 175 games42% · 156 games
Void SpiritNyx
Void Spirit
Lycan
LycanPalantimos
62% · 46 games44% · 45 games
Viperlegacy
Viper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
53% · 211 games48% · 128 games
UnderlordLurker
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
47% · 179 games49% · 314 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Undying
Undyingaik
52% · 98 games54% · 66 games
Ogre MagiFlash
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct45:16
Pipsqueak+4 75%NoLogoJustMMR 25%
The model gave 75% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzDarkLord^
57% · 76 games53% · 86 games
Phantom Assassinlegacy
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
55% · 224 games45% · 219 games
Centaur WarrunnerLurker
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
43% · 133 games56% · 161 game
MuertaAtoufix
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
47% · 264 games47% · 271 game
Ember SpiritNyx
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marciaik
52% · 192 games46% · 152 games
Shadow DemonFlash
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 87%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2