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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 10 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
SoNNeikO · 6 games
17%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Copy · 6 games
33%

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 17 games
18%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
8%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
18%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
gbc · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 316 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 493 bans
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 395 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 442 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
296 picks · 620 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
271 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
271 picks · 101 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 351 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 93%PuckChamp 7%
The model gave 93% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Game 2prediction correct22:16
Pipsqueak+4 80%PuckChamp 20%
The model gave 80% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerrincyq
56% · 45 games52% · 64 games
Lone DruidYuragi
Lone Druid
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
50% · 104 games53% · 115 games
Doomkrol9ash
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCopy
48% · 116 games52% · 143 games
Slardargbc
Slardar
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEkki
48% · 174 games50% · 110 games
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Shadow Demon
Techies
Techiesaik
48% · 122 games47% · 129 games
Dark WillowGothic-
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct26:9
Pipsqueak+4 82%PuckChamp 18%
The model gave 82% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 23:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
51% · 257 games43% · 128 games
Timbersawkrol9ash
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCopy
54% · 160 games44% · 203 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
57% · 89 games47% · 254 games
Slardargbc
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowEkki
49% · 237 games51% · 153 games
BaneHyugadoto
Bane
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernaik
54% · 173 games50% · 178 games
MiranaGothic-
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 93%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3