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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 21 game
52%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 9 games
22%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 7 games
29%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
702 picks · 299 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 593 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
574 picks · 731 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
566 picks · 277 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 334 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 490 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 594 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 701 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Pipsqueak+4 74%Team Spirit Academy 26%
The model gave 74% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
46% · 332 games53% · 440 games
Tiny86
Tiny
Doom
DoomPalantimos
52% · 238 games48% · 109 games
Huskarrubikon155
Huskar
Sniper
SniperCopy
43% · 67 games50% · 156 games
MarciSunshineRR
Marci
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
49% · 379 games57% · 205 games
Chenkyford
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
45% · 178 games55% · 284 games
Shadow ShamanAidar
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct40:39
Pipsqueak+4 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 47:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNande
47% · 51 game41% · 81 game
Weaverrubikon155
Weaver
Windranger
WindrangerCopy
48% · 81 game49% · 80 games
Huskar86
Huskar
Doom
DoomPalantimos
54% · 69 games50% · 180 games
TidehunterSunshineRR
Tidehunter
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
54% · 262 games51% · 82 games
Skywrath MageAidar
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
50% · 77 games55% · 117 games
Dazzlekyford
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 89%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2