European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNL DOTAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Disruptor
Kaori · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Timado · 1 game
Puckoften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
Snapfire
sayuw · 1 game
Tusk
sayuw · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
TNL DOTA
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 24 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 23 games
Tusk
Fernans · 22 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 14 games
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
309 picks · 197 bans
Puck
297 picks · 663 bans
Dark Willow
264 picks · 115 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 602 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 511 bans
Batrider
247 picks · 679 bans
Marci
242 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:11
Pipsqueak+4 43%TNL DOTA 57%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoNande
Anti-Mageyowaai
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Invokerdualrazee
UndyingPalantimos
BeastmasterNorma
EnchantressKidaro
HoodwinkFernans
TuskKaori
Phoenixflacko
Game 2prediction missed31:7
Pipsqueak+4 42%TNL DOTA 58%
The model gave 58% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 23:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeNande
Puckdualrazee
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Ursayowaai
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
PhoenixNorma
WarlockKidaro
TuskFernans
Shadow ShamanKaori
Baneflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 65%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2