?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 18 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 10 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Ekki · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
89%
Kez
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
aik · 7 games
86%

Yakult Brothers

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaka · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
lou · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Emo · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 288 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
336 picks · 137 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 148 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 459 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 434 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 298 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 200 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 243 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:38
Pipsqueak+4 45%Yakult Brothers 55%
The model gave 55% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 58:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertarincyq
50% · 161 game54% · 59 games
Lone Druidlou
Lone Druid
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCopy
45% · 258 games49% · 151 game
TimbersawEmo
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
54% · 96 games43% · 142 games
DoomBEYOND
Doom
Mirana
MiranaEkki
55% · 180 games54% · 567 games
Hoodwink天命
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
48% · 327 games49% · 103 games
LionKaka
Lion
Game 2prediction missed41:15
Pipsqueak+4 46%Yakult Brothers 54%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 48:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
45% · 290 games50% · 132 games
Clinkzlou
Clinkz
Kez
Kezrincyq
52% · 227 games46% · 499 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
53% · 296 games51% · 463 games
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEkki
56% · 162 games46% · 220 games
Undying天命
Undying
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkaik
48% · 552 games53% · 213 games
LionKaka
Lion
Game 3prediction missed62:52
Pipsqueak+4 46%Yakult Brothers 54%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 1:26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezrincyq
51% · 214 games57% · 165 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
42% · 34 games48% · 402 games
Tinylou
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
42% · 93 games44% · 23 games
Legion CommanderBEYOND
Legion Commander
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
51% · 532 games57% · 165 games
LionKaka
Lion
Lich
Lichaik
47% · 90 games53% · 208 games
Techies天命
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 59%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3