Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Plan Bloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FH Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Plan B
Juggernautoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
Linaoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
BurNIng · 1 game
FH Gaming
Lich
斗圣 · 2 games
Dazzle
斗圣 · 1 game
Disruptor
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
Marci
309 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 216 bans
Undying
281 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 448 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 522 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Plan B
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% FH Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:30
Plan B 50%FH Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Plan B — the game was taken by FH Gaming in 56:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenBurNIng
Undying斗圣
Game 2prediction correct9:30
Plan B 45%FH Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on FH Gaming — the game was taken by FH Gaming in 18:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautBurNIng
Disruptor斗圣
Model check result
Model favoriteFH Gaming · 50%
Series resultFH Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2