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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolier
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 14 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
46%
Largo
Largooften banned
Frank · 13 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 13 games
31%

Hokori

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Asao · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Largo
Largooften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Gardick · 4 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
524 picks · 340 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
455 picks · 246 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 183 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
357 picks · 330 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 514 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 137 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 292 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 521 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:12
PlayTime 69%Hokori 31%
The model gave 69% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosFCR
53% · 127 games47% · 179 games
MuertaLumière
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
55% · 423 games46% · 240 games
Earth SpiritBenjimon
Earth Spirit
Slark
Slarkbottega
57% · 97 games48% · 148 games
BrewmasterVitaly
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerElmisho
55% · 373 games46% · 659 games
HoodwinkDemon
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKJ
51% · 343 games41% · 137 games
DisruptorGardick
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct21:7
PlayTime 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 18:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawFCR
44% · 165 games56% · 56 games
AlchemistLumière
Alchemist
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbottega
59% · 135 games48% · 179 games
AxeVitaly
Axe
Sand King
Sand KingAbed
54% · 72 games53% · 171 game
Winter WyvernGardick
Winter Wyvern
Techies
TechiesElmisho
44% · 162 games44% · 230 games
Dark WillowDemon
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleKJ
50% · 102 games
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 81%
Series resultPlayTime 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2