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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimeloss 1:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Akashi · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kuku · 5 games
60%

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 28 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
510 picks · 282 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 565 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 350 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
436 picks · 343 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 326 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
346 picks · 836 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 841 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
339 picks · 178 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:46
PlayTime 29%PARIVISION 71%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 55:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
49% · 268 games57% · 126 games
Faceless VoidSatanic
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWits
51% · 192 games44% · 159 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
55% · 147 games50% · 274 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
49% · 266 games47% · 142 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
52% · 137 games47% · 309 games
SnapfireDukalis
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed31:15
PlayTime 28%PARIVISION 72%
The model gave 72% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PlayTime in 26:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerWits
47% · 214 games56% · 29 games
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Phantom Assassin
Viper
ViperDarkMago
44% · 130 games53% · 394 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Axe
AxeFrank
43% · 190 games48% · 281 game
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
53% · 359 games57% · 100 games
Huskar9Class
Huskar
Marci
MarciScofield
52% · 195 games49% · 284 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct16:25
PlayTime 29%PARIVISION 71%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWits
50% · 396 games48% · 350 games
TinySatanic
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
47% · 192 games48% · 342 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFrank
55% · 215 games45% · 153 games
DawnbreakerNoticed
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressElmisho
47% · 158 games57% · 174 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Marci
MarciScofield
52% · 237 games50% · 179 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3