ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Second Windloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PlayTime
No games played over 6 months.
Second Wind
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Leshrac
Beebie · 1 game
Muerta
TrazaM · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Tusk
TrazaM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
566 picks · 738 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 357 bans
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 648 bans
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 630 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 545 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 124 bans
Hoodwink
367 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
PlayTime 80%Second Wind 20%
The model gave 80% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 26:03.
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 80%
Series resultPlayTime 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1