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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimeloss 0:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 35 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 32 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 327 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
500 picks · 589 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 365 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 225 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
366 picks · 271 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 874 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 468 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 843 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:22
PlayTime 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWits
50% · 193 games51% · 39 games
Phantom AssassinPure~
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
52% · 277 games48% · 472 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
40% · 246 games55% · 141 game
Largo33
Largo
Silencer
SilencerElmisho
49% · 97 games54% · 503 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskScofield
51% · 380 games46% · 38 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1