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BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EHOMEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 12 games
75%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lichsignature
Eyyou · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 7 games
100%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
CatYou · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Night · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
562 picks · 370 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 505 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 427 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
387 picks · 455 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
365 picks · 355 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 171 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
298 picks · 189 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 726 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:36
Polaris Esports 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBok
45% · 163 games59% · 229 games
Monkey Kingmks-
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAkashi
46% · 159 games51% · 331 game
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
44% · 375 games59% · 54 games
Magnusxiaoyu154
Magnus
Marci
MarciJing
44% · 296 games56% · 254 games
MiranaCatYou
Mirana
Lich
Lichcml
41% · 75 games55% · 200 games
Crystal MaidenLwwnb
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Polaris Esports 59%EHOME 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 25:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMac
48% · 280 games50% · 182 games
Morphlingmks-
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAkashi
51% · 173 games57% · 84 games
Magnusxiaoyu154
Magnus
Tusk
TuskBok
49% · 434 games46% · 570 games
TinyNight
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaJing
55% · 364 games52% · 376 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitioncml
46% · 38 games44% · 77 games
LichLwwnb
Lich
Game 3prediction correct31:16
Polaris Esports 60%EHOME 40%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMac
55% · 180 games40% · 152 games
Terrorblademks-
Terrorblade
Lifestealer
LifestealerAkashi
59% · 80 games42% · 182 games
Primal Beastxiaoyu154
Primal Beast
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBok
58% · 65 games50% · 154 games
BatriderNight
Batrider
Marci
MarciJing
52% · 265 games45% · 264 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
51% · 267 games50% · 105 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3