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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 19 games
84%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 14 games
86%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
cml · 9 games
67%

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
15%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 10 games
30%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 278 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 621 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 481 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
388 picks · 507 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 778 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 536 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
326 picks · 510 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 480 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 34%
Hero pool strength67% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total72% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:42
Polaris Esports 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMarb
47% · 393 games59% · 313 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMac
53% · 167 games52% · 270 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNatsumi
49% · 99 games49% · 264 games
Sand KingTino-
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfirePlayHard
52% · 240 games55% · 227 games
MiranaShanks
Mirana
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBoomy
43% · 263 games40% · 88 games
PugnaRR
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed25:36
Polaris Esports 64%Execration 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMarb
57% · 179 games47% · 133 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
43% · 189 games48% · 220 games
RazorBob
Razor
Mars
MarsNatsumi
45% · 436 games47% · 217 games
Dragon KnightTino-
Dragon Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
51% · 77 games61% · 218 games
MiranaShanks
Mirana
Omniknight
OmniknightBoomy
54% · 43 games50% · 136 games
Ogre MagiRR
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 72%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2