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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 18 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 11 games
91%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 8 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
cml · 8 games
63%

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
15%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 13 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Palos · 13 games
62%
Bane
Bane
RR · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 10 games
30%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 643 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 479 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 275 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
420 picks · 571 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
375 picks · 435 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 620 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 551 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 583 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 41%
Hero pool strength66% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Polaris Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
54% · 47 games52% · 151 game
Wraith KingPalos
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
42% · 277 games52% · 153 games
Dragon KnightBob
Dragon Knight
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightNevermine
51% · 162 games57% · 140 games
RazorTino-
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfireBoomy
43% · 273 games51% · 170 games
MiranaShanks
Mirana
52% · 145 games
Death ProphetRR
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Polaris Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMac
56% · 188 games51% · 258 games
Monkey KingPalos
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaNatsumi
45% · 219 games51% · 217 games
RazorBob
Razor
Mars
MarsNevermine
48% · 398 games41% · 108 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoomy
60% · 77 games53% · 36 games
EnigmaShanks
Enigma
48% · 263 games
Death ProphetRR
Death Prophet
Game 3prediction missed17:38
Polaris Esports 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
49% · 67 games50% · 67 games
Phantom LancerPalos
Phantom Lancer
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMac
49% · 265 games50% · 69 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Sand King
Sand KingNevermine
52% · 298 games46% · 280 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBoomy
48% · 78 games52% · 53 games
Shadow ShamanShanks
Shadow Shaman
54% · 239 games
BaneRR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3