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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 13 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 11 games
73%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Roddgeee · 10 games
30%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Skem · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
825 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 412 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 545 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 417 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
486 picks · 790 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
438 picks · 909 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
385 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:39
Polaris Esports 55%Geek Fam 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMac
50% · 276 games48% · 159 games
BloodseekerSkem
Bloodseeker
Lifestealer
LifestealerAkashi
55% · 55 games58% · 62 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBok
48% · 215 games51% · 324 games
MiranaJaunuel
Mirana
Undying
UndyingBoomy
50% · 167 games44% · 328 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
49% · 160 games
Game 2prediction missed11:33
Polaris Esports 56%Geek Fam 44%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
53% · 153 games47% · 164 games
UrsaSkem
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
61% · 114 games46% · 72 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Tidehunter
TidehunterBok
48% · 84 games50% · 305 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoomy
42% · 189 games55% · 373 games
MiranaJaunuel
Mirana
Rubick
Rubickcml
49% · 374 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 65%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2