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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Jing · 17 games
65%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 13 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 9 games
67%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 17 games
82%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
89%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 7 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
649 picks · 420 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
566 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
456 picks · 533 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 385 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 205 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 506 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 216 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:34
Polaris Esports 56%Myth Avenue Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAkashi
61% · 95 games54% · 76 games
LifestealerMeracle
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMac
46% · 117 games48% · 162 games
Batriderxsilearn
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBok
46% · 93 games50% · 29 games
Magnuszeal
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJing
46% · 152 games53% · 52 games
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
Bane
Banecml
48% · 74 games49% · 212 games
TuskRR
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct25:4
Polaris Esports 52%Myth Avenue Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
48% · 142 games52% · 177 games
Leshracxsilearn
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 273 games54% · 41 game
Lone DruidMeracle
Lone Druid
Marci
MarciBok
46% · 225 games53% · 57 games
Magnuszeal
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJing
48% · 113 games54% · 334 games
TuskHishge
Tusk
Lich
Lichcml
45% · 66 games51% · 210 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct40:13
Polaris Esports 57%Myth Avenue Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
53% · 282 games47% · 273 games
MarciMeracle
Marci
Tusk
TuskMac
50% · 465 games52% · 142 games
Leshracxsilearn
Leshrac
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBok
56% · 73 games47% · 89 games
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJing
52% · 198 games54% · 516 games
TinyHishge
Tiny
Lich
Lichcml
42% · 115 games47% · 113 games
DisruptorRR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 63%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3