BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Linasignature
Mac · 9 games
Marcisignature
Boomy · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
Lich
Eyyou · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Force · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Neon Esports
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Snapfire
Hated · 6 games
Tuskoften banned
PlayHard · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
442 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
442 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
430 picks · 398 bans
Mirana
322 picks · 322 bans
Treant Protector
288 picks · 344 bans
Snapfire
263 picks · 136 bans
Ember Spirit
240 picks · 611 bans
Crystal Maiden
232 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Polaris Esports 62%Neon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaAkashi
Drow RangerFortuneSoul
TinyMac
PangolierKen
Death ProphetBok
Dragon KnightEnryu
RikiJing
Treant ProtectorHated
Omniknightcml
Game 2prediction correct34:17
Polaris Esports 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverAkashi
UrsaFortuneSoul
BatriderMac
Ember SpiritKen
TuskBok
MarciEnryu
RubickJing
SnapfireHated
Dark Willowcml
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 69%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2