Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 10 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 6 games
Void Spirit
Ken · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Rubick
Hishge · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 563 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1278 bans
Doom
556 picks · 1093 bans
Techies
507 picks · 568 bans
Pangolier
472 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1112 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 650 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:19
Polaris Esports 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaAkashi
MorphlingFortuneSoul
PangolierMac
Void SpiritKen
BeastmasterEnryu
RubickHishge
Enchantresscml
ClinkzBoomy
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Polaris Esports 58%Neon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAkashi
Phantom LancerFortuneSoul
KunkkaMac
Void SpiritKen
Spirit BreakerEnryu
RubickHishge
MiranaBoomy
Venomancercml
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2