Polaris Esports vs Ragdoll — prediction DPC2—Ю · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3

result vs prediction

Polaris Esportswin 2:0

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ragdollloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lionsignature

cml · 17 games

65%

Tidehuntersignature

Force · 13 games

69%

Pangoliersignature

Force · 11 games

73%

Ember Spiritsignature

Mac · 10 games

70%

Kunkkasignature

Mac · 9 games

67%

Mirana

Boomy · 9 games

56%

Snapfiresignature

Boomy · 9 games

67%

Banesignature

cml · 8 games

75%

Ragdoll

Marsoften banned

Gy · 7 games

57%

Queen of Painoften banned

Ahjit · 7 games

57%

Terrorbladeoften banned

vtFαded · 7 games

57%

Death Prophet

Azrael · 6 games

50%

Weaversignature

Yif · 6 games

67%

Drow Rangeroften banned

vtFαded · 5 games

80%

Lion

Yif · 5 games

60%

Ogre Magi

Azrael · 5 games

80%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

438 picks · 323 bans

57%

Mars

410 picks · 598 bans

50%

Queen of Pain

347 picks · 418 bans

50%

Weaver

343 picks · 775 bans

57%

Snapfire

328 picks · 182 bans

45%

Kunkka

268 picks · 449 bans

56%

Spirit Breaker

264 picks · 385 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

244 picks · 333 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)61% vs 77%

Hero pool strength52% Polaris Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% Polaris Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct32:11

Polaris Esports 51%Ragdoll 49%

The model gave 51% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 35:50.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo