BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TOTeam Orcawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Lionsignature
cml · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Force · 14 games
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
Banesignature
cml · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 9 games
Team Orca
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 361 bans
Queen of Pain
475 picks · 573 bans
Mars
439 picks · 595 bans
Weaver
418 picks · 723 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 540 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 163 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:27
Polaris Esports 66%Team Orca 34%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 41:31.
Game 2prediction missed14:32
Polaris Esports 66%Team Orca 34%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team Orca in 31:53.
Game 3prediction missed8:30
Polaris Esports 66%Team Orca 34%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team Orca in 23:21.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 66%
Series resultTeam Orca 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3